EUR/USD: Bulls need big miss on US data to force a breakout

  • EUR/USD remains below key resistance at 1.1097 amid renewed trade tensions. 
  • The focus is on the US ADP Employment report and ISM Non-Manufacturing data. 
  • A big miss on US data will likely yield a convincing move above 1.1097.

A breakout in EUR/USD will likely remain elusive unless key US data releases on Wednesday miss expectations by a big margin.

The pair jumped 0.58% on Monday, confirming its biggest single-day rise since Sept. 17.  The sharp rise neutralized the immediate bearish setup but failed to invite stronger buying pressure, leaving the pair below the Nov. 21 high of 1.1097. A close higher is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

That, however, looks difficult amid fading US-China trade optimism. President Trump on Tuesday said that he may delay a trade deal with China till after the 2020 presidential election.

Further, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has condemned the US move and has warned of retaliation.

The escalating political tensions could complicate matters on the trade front. As a result, the EUR may struggle to pick up a strong bid, more so, as China's Yuan is losing ground against the greenback. The USD/CNY pair is currently trading at 7.0672, the highest level since Oct. 25.

Put simply, the odds are stacked against the EUR bulls and forcing a breakout above 1.1097 could be a tough task.

The pair, however, may find acceptance above 1.1097 if the dollar side of the story weakens significantly. The US ADP Employment report, due at 13:15, is expected to show the private sector added 140K jobs in November compared to 125K jobs in October. Meanwhile, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) is seen printing at 54.5 versus 54.7 in October.

A big miss on the ADP and ISM PMI will likely revive dovish Federal Reserve expectations, yielding a broad-based sell-off in the greenback. Currently, markets are expecting the central bank to stand pat until the US Presidential Elections, due in November 2020.

Technical levels


Today last price 1.1079
Today Daily Change -0.0002
Today Daily Change % -0.02
Today daily open 1.1081
Daily SMA20 1.104
Daily SMA50 1.1044
Daily SMA100 1.1073
Daily SMA200 1.1163
Previous Daily High 1.1094
Previous Daily Low 1.1066
Previous Weekly High 1.1034
Previous Weekly Low 1.0981
Previous Monthly High 1.1176
Previous Monthly Low 1.0981
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1077
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1083
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1066
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1051
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1037
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1095
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1109
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1124



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD stays below 1.3350 on poor UK PMIs

GBP/USD hits fresh session lows of 1.3335 following an unexpected drop in the UK's Preliminary Manufacturing and Service PMI reports. However, the downside appears capped amid growing Brexit optimism. 


EUR/USD keeps range around 1.1130 on downbeat PMIs

EUR/USD trims gains to trade near 1.1130 region after the sentiment around the euro was dented by the disappointing German and Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs. Trade concerns also keep the gains limited. 


UK Elections and US-China trade: Removing Risk Factors

Following the euphoria over the decisive UK election result and the US-China "Phase 1" trade deal markets look primed to end the year on a positive footing. Two of the major risk factors threatening to detail market sentiment into year end have at least been lifted.

Read more

Gold consolidates in a range, flat-lined around $1475 level

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the early European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band near the $1475 region.

Gold News

USD/JPY clings to modest gains, just below mid-109.00s

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and remained well within the previous session's trading range.