EUR/USD: Bull cross confirmed, Fed rate cut odds rise ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

EUR/USD is flashing green for the fourth straight day with key indicator flashing bullish conditions ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls data. 

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.0978, representing 0.13% gains on the day, having hit a high of 1.0984 in the Asian trading hours. The pair eked out moderate gains in the previous three trading days. 

Bull cross 

The 50-hour moving average (MA) has crossed above the 200-hour MA, confirming a golden crossover – a bull market indicator. Hence, the pair looks set to extend the ongoing recovery rally from recent lows near 1.0880.

Fed rate cut odds rise

Traders are currently pricing more than 80% chance of 2019's third 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 30 meeting. The probability stood at 64% on Wednesday and 40% on Monday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The rising odds of an October Fed rate cut also support the bullish view put forward by the hourly chart golden crossover. 

Focus on the US Payrolls

The data due at 12:30 GMT is expected to show the economy added 145K jobs in September following 130K additions in August. Meanwhile, the Average Hourly Earnings are seen rising 3.2% year-on-year and the Unemployment Rate is forecasted to stay unchanged at 3.7%. 

A weak data would bolster the dovish Fed expectations, sending the US Dollar lower across the board. 

EUR/USD will likely come under pressure and possibly drop to 1.09 if the data beats estimates by a big margin, forcing markets to price out the prospects of a rate cut on Oct. 30.

Apart from the payrolls, the pair may also take cues from the US Trade Balance. Also, a number of Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, are scheduled to speak during the American trading hours. 

The US Dollar will likely pick up a strong bid if Powell downplays the need to cut rates on Oct. 30.

• Read: Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Meager job growth likely – Five EUR/USD scenarios

Technical levels