EUR/USD: Break higher is justified but further gains more limited – MUFG

EUR/USD extends its losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand, driven by a renewed rise in geopolitical risks following the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The GBP/USD pair opens with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week and trades just below mid-1.3400s during the Asian session, down 0.10% for the day. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and manage to hold above last week's swing low amid mixed fundamental cues.

Gold holds sizeable gains near $4,400 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The traditional safe-haven metal capitalizes on escalating geopolitical risks after the United States' capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the US seizure of Maduro and await the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data later on Monday. 

Next week is important for U.S. markets. We get key economic data that can move stocks, bonds, and the dollar. The main reports are ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, Building Permits, and Non-Farm Payrolls. Traders will watch these closely.

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).