EUR/USD: Bias for the Euro remains on the downside – UOB Group

The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.0665 and 1.0715. Bias for EUR remains on the downside; it must break clearly below 1.0665 before further decline can be expected, UOB Group analysts note.

Euro to trade in 1.0665-1.0715 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “When EUR was trading at 1.0705 last Friday, we indicated that EUR could continue to weaken. However, we pointed out that ‘it might not be able to break clearly below 1.0665.’ Our view was not wrong, as EUR fell to 1.0668 before rebounding to close little changed at 1.0691 (-0.08%). Downward momentum is slowing, and EUR is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, EUR is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.0665 and 1.0715.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Tuesday (18 Jun, spot at 1.0735), we highlighted that ‘there has been a slight buildup in downward momentum, and there is a chance for EUR to retest the 1.0665 level.’ We also highlighted that ‘the likelihood of a sustained decline below this level is not high.’ On Friday (21 Jun, spot at 1.0705), we highlighted that ‘the chance of EUR breaking clearly below 1.0665 has increased slightly.’ EUR subsequently dropped to a low of 1.0668. While the bias for EUR remains on the downside, it must break clearly below 1.0665 before further decline can be expected. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.0665 is at 1.0630. On the upside, a breach of 1.0740 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.0760 last Friday) would mean that the downward bias has faded.”