EUR/USD: Bearish bias for October – MUFG

Matías Salord FXStreet

The EUR/USD is trading below 0.9830, on its way to the lowest weekly close in decades. Analysts at MUFG Bank hold a bearish perspective on the EUR/USD pair for October. They see the pair trading in a range between 0.9500 and 1.03000.

Key Quotes:

“In the month ahead, we are maintaining a short EUR/USD bias. The Fed’s commitment to deliver further large rate hikes and the tightening of global financial conditions should continue to favour a stronger US dollar. The Fed has signalled clearly that it wants to see sustained evidence that inflation pressures are easing before delivering a dovish policy pivot. The stronger US CPI report for August has provided an even higher hurdle for a dovish pivot.”

“The main upside risk to our bearish EUR/USD bias could be triggered by a further paring back of more acute energy supply concerns in Europe. If the price of gas continues to fall heading into the winter it would help to ease fears over a sharper slowdown in the euro-zone. At the same time, the EUR could strengthen more than expected if the ECB keeps raising rates at a faster pace while the Fed signals that is considering slowing hikes.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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