EUR/USD: Back above 200-week MA ahead of Draghi speech

The EUR/USD has faded the drop below the 200-week moving average (MA).
The recovery could be extended further to 1.14 if ECB's Draghi reaffirms commitment to end the QE program in December.
Brexit chaos and the resulting action in the EUR/GBP could also influence the EUR/USD.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1335, having printed a low of 1.1215 earlier this week.

The move back above the 200-week MA of 1.1308 could embolden the bulls as the long-term moving average had put a floor under the pair in the last two weeks. Further, the MA had reversed pullback in August.

A move higher to 1.14, however, depends on what the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi says during the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, scheduled at 08:30 GMT.

The common currency could pick up a strong bid if Draghi downplays Italy's budget crisis and reaffirms plans to end the QE program. Further, GBP/USD is likely to report losses, as indicated by the rising demand for Sterling puts. The resulting uptick in the EUR/GBP cross could also add to the bullish tone around the EUR/USD.

The pair, however, may fall back below the 200-week MA if Draghi sounds cautious, forcing markets to price-in a delay in the rate hike, currently seen happening at the end of 2019.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1336
    Daily change: 4.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0353%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

EUR/USD revisits 1.1780, or daily lows

EUR/USD now comes under further selling pressure, breaking below the 1.1800 support to reach daily troughs on Thursday. The pair’s decline comes in response to a sudden bout of USD strength amid steady geopolitical tensions. Ealier in the day, the ECB’s Lagarde delivered cautious remarks, although the currency remained apathetic.

GBP/USD makes a U-turn, challenges 1.3500

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, putting the 1.3500 support to the test on Thursday. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold sticks to the bid bias, flirts with $5,200

Gold is now facing some downside pressure, hovering around the $5,170 region on Thursday. The precious metal adds to Wednesday’s optimism despite the Greenback trades in a firm fashion, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep the yellow metal bid for now.