EUR: Still rather expensive – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

EUR/USD received some extra support yesterday from the news that Ukraine agreed to a 30-day truce with Russia, but has retreated from the 1.095 highs to just under 1.090 as the dollar started to recover and the EU announced €26bn worth of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Markets had already largely priced in a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, and while another small leg higher in EUR/USD may be due if and when Russia agrees to the terms of the truce, the pair can face greater upside resistance on the back of stretched technicals, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

A drop to 1.080 is more likely than a rally to 1.10

"Despite the correction overnight, EUR/USD remains around 1.5% overvalued, according to our short-term fair value model. Also, the latest CFTC data show positioning has moved back to neutral territory. Speculative net-shorts accounted for only 1.5% of open interest as of 4 March, down from 11% at the end of February."

"With US core CPI potentially capping dovish sentiment on the Fed today, the two-year EUR:USD swap rate gap may struggle to tighten beyond the -140bp level (now -144bp), and may instead face some rewidening that would make EUR/USD even more expensive at current levels. There is also a risk that either ECB President Christine Lagarde or any of the many other ECB speakers today will sound slightly more dovish after the EU’s retaliatory tariff announcement."

"At this stage, we think a drop to 1.080 is more likely than a rally to 1.10 in EUR/USD."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage.

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.