EUR steady in mid-1.17s ahead of ECB Thursday – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is steady, trading in a tight range in the mid 1.17s and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional gain vs. the US Dollar (USD). The EUR remains well supported overall, hovering slightly below last Thursday’s high just above current spot levels, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Spreads remain supportive

"The latest euro area industrial production figures for October were in line with expectations, offering little in terms of market movement. The highlight of this week remains Thursday’s ECB policy decision which is expected to deliver a widely anticipated hold at 2.00% (depo rate). A forecast upgrade has also been broadly communicated, lifting ECB rate expectations and delivering a fundamentally driven boost in the EUR to fresh two month highs."

"Euro area-US yield spreads have climbed to fresh highs and are threatening a break of their 2024 highs, opening up the potential for a push to levels last seen in mid 2023. A fair value assessment based on 2Y spreads alone would have EURUSD trading at 1.1856, well above current levels in spot."

"The EUR is well supported with no material pullback from last Thursday’s push to fresh multi-month highs. Momentum is confirming and the RSI has reach bullish levels ~70 that are typically associated with overbought conditions. We see no material resistance ahead of 1.18 and the mid-September high in the lower 1.19s. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.17 and 1.18."