EUR: Stalling recovery? – ING

The story this week in the eurozone could be soft survey data that supports the ECB's contention that short-term economic risks lie to the downside. This may well be most evident in tomorrow's release of the flash PMIs for July, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD trades in very narrow ranges under 1.09

“Today, however, we will get some consumer confidence data for July. The Dutch reading has already slipped back a little and the eurozone reading is released at 16:00 CET. Some further improvement is expected in the eurozone aggregate index, but a softer reading suggests fading hopes of positive real wage growth leading to higher consumption.”

“EUR/USD is trading in very narrow ranges at just under 1.09. Traded volatility is exceptionally low – e.g. three-month volatility is just 5.3% – and the market has concluded there is no trend here. Probably the next big input here (after Friday's core PCE figure) is the Fed meeting next Wednesday. That is probably a negative risk to the dollar.”

“Apart from consumer confidence later in the day, the only noteworthy event on the eurozone calendar is a speech from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. However, do not expect him to provide many clues of a September ECB rate cut, since the ECB has shifted away from forward guidance.”