EUR/NZD Price Analysis: Back on the watchlist for a bullish setup

  • EUR/NZD bulls back to the table for another attempt to catch a breakout out. 
  • Bullish conditions are in the making to entice demand for the pair in a correction of the weekly M-formation. 

In a follow up to the prior analysis on EUR/NZD, bulls have not been able to catch a break in sideways chop, aka, 'The Barroom Brawl'.

However, from a top-down analysis, the bias leans to an upside correction on the long-term charts. 

Weekly chart

To date, there have been two opportunities to take advantage of bullish conditions, but on both occasions, the entries have been premature resulting in a loss and a breakeven outcome. 

The trading analysis to date can be read here: EUR/NZD Price Analysis: If at first you don't succeed...

Meanwhile, the 4-hour conditions are turning bullish again and ripening for a trade setup.

This was following yesterday's recalibration of the second set-up which required the target to be moved to breakeven following bearish price action post entry. 

4-hour setup

Since moving the target to breakeven, the price did indeed drop to where the position would have otherwise been closed-out for a loss.

Moving the target to breakeven meant preserving the balance of the account with appropriate risk management in or to trade another day. 

However, the bulls have not thrown in the towel and the price stabilised at familiar support before rising back to challenge the prior support which is now being tested as a resistance structure. 

A break of the resistance structure will take MACD above zero and leave the price trading back in bullish conditions. 

Either a buy position can be executed with a market order or a buy limit can be placed at the structure for another attempt to ride the bullish correction towards the target. 

Note, the conditions are still NOT bullish enough for entry, according to the strategy's rules. 

MACD must cross into positive territory. Therefore, there is still some convincing to do from the bulls yet. 

A bullish 4-hour close that would be expected to pull MACD above the zero-line will likely trigger the set-up. 

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