German IFO Survey Business Climate Index jumps to 88.6 in February, beats estimates

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

German IFO Institute's Business Climate Index improves to 88.6 in February, beating estimates of 88.4 and 87.6 in January.

The IFO Current Assessment Index arrives at 86.7, higher than the 86.1 estimate and the previous reading of 85.7.

Expectations Index jumps to 90.5, as expected, against 89.6 in January, revised higher from 89.5.

Market reaction

There seems to be no immediate impact of German IFO data on the Euro (EUR). As of writing, EUR/USD trades 0.25% higher to near 1.1810 despite giving up some of its early gains.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.21%	-0.19%	-0.25%	-0.15%	-0.03%	-0.13%	-0.21%
EUR	0.21%		0.01%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.17%	0.08%	0.00%
GBP	0.19%	-0.01%		-0.06%	0.05%	0.16%	0.07%	-0.02%
JPY	0.25%	0.05%	0.06%		0.11%	0.22%	0.13%	0.06%
CAD	0.15%	-0.07%	-0.05%	-0.11%		0.11%	0.01%	-0.06%
AUD	0.03%	-0.17%	-0.16%	-0.22%	-0.11%		-0.09%	-0.18%
NZD	0.13%	-0.08%	-0.07%	-0.13%	-0.01%	0.09%		-0.09%
CHF	0.21%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.06%	0.06%	0.18%	0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(This section below was published at 07:31 GMT as a preview of the German IFO Survey data for February)

The German IFO Survey Overview

Germany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for February on Monday at 09:00 GMT.

The headline IFO – Business Climate Index is forecast to edge up to 88.4 in February from 87.6 in January.

The IFO – Current Assessment Index is expected to come at 86.1 in February, compared with 85.7 previously.

IFO – Expectations Index is projected to rise to 90.5 in the reported month, from 89.5 reading prior.

How could the German IFO Survey affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD could stay supported after Germany's IFO Business Survey release, as the Euro (EUR) strengthens against the US Dollar following the US Supreme Court’s ruling that President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were unlawful without Congressional approval.

However, Trump is reportedly considering a new 15% global tariff under alternative trade laws, prolonging uncertainty over US trade policy. Meanwhile, the European Parliament’s trade chief said the European Union would propose suspending ratification of its trade deal with the US until clearer policy guidance is provided by the administration.

Technically, the EUR/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.1820 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above the midline to 51, signaling neutral and stabilizing momentum. The pair is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA at 1.1825. A daily close above this short-term average could pave the way toward 1.2082, the highest level since June 2021. On the downside, a move back below the nine-day EMA would bring the 50-day EMA at 1.1776 support into focus.

Economic Indicator

IFO – Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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