|

EUR: Narrower spreads and stable equities are supportive – ING

The continuing drop in short-dated US rates means that at 85bp, the two-year EUR:USD swap differential is at its narrowest level of the year. Assuming equities can hold up, this should be a cautiously positive environment for EUR/USD, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR sets a move up to 1.1155

“Additionally, we think some further narrowing of that swap differential can come from the eurozone side. Here, 11bp is still priced for an October European Central Bank cut - something we think is unlikely. On that subject, we hear from three ECB speakers today. Most relevant for markets is probably the 2:00pm CET speech from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.”

“Should he pour a little cold water on the chances of an October ECB rate cut, EUR/USD could get a lift. EUR/USD is currently pressing 1.1100 and think momentum and cross-market developments favour a move up to 1.1155.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eyes 1.1800 barrier near two-month highs

EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and approaches 1.1800. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a persistent bullish bias, as the pair moves upward within the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 68.89 reaffirms the bullish bias.

GBP/USD climbs to 1.3500 area, renews ten-week high

GBP/USD extends its weekly rally and trades at its highest level since early October near 1.3500. The US Dollar remains under persistent bearish pressure heading into the holidays, while Pound traders largely brush off the latest interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

Gold approaches $4,500 as record-setting rally continues

Gold builds on Monday's impressive gains and advances toward $4,500, setting fresh record-highs along the way. Heightened geopolitical tensions, combined with the broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness ahead of the Q3 GDP data, help XAU/USD preserve its bullish momentum.

Uniswap holds above $6 as traders eye UNIfication vote outcome

Uniswap price holds above $6 at the time of writing on Tuesday after closing above a key resistance zone in the previous week. Traders are focusing on the highly anticipated UNIfication proposal, which is set to conclude on Thursday, and could become a key near-term catalyst. On the technical side, momentum indicators are flashing bullish signals, hinting at an upside rally.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.