EUR/JPY appears consolidative below 123.00


  • The cross stays under pressure below the 123.00 handle.
  • US-China trade, Italy remains as key drivers for risk trends.
  • EMU trade surplus widened to €22.5 billion during March.

EUR/JPY is alternating gains with losses on Thursday following the improved mood around the European currency and the sidelined pattern in the Japanese safe haven.

EUR/JPY attention to trade, risk appetite

The cross has accelerated the leg lower in the last sessions and is currently transiting the second consecutive week with losses, always tracking the broader risk appetite trends.

In fact, renewed concerns on the US-China trade front have sparked strong inflows into the Japanese safe haven and thus forced the cross to recede from the area near the 200-week SMA beyond 126.00 the figure seen in mid-March to yesterday’s lows near the 122.00 milestone/

In the data space, EMU trade surplus surprised to the upside in March and widened to €22.5 billion. Later in the session, the Eurogroup meeting should kick in along with speeches by ECB’s De Guindos, Coeure and Praet.

EUR/JPY relevant levels

At the moment the cross is gaining 0.12% at 122.89 and faces initial resistance at 123.26 (10-day SMA) followed by 124.22 (21-day SMA) and finally 125.23 (monthly high May 1). On the other hand, a breach of 122.08 (low May 15) would aim for 120.54 (monthly low Jan.17 2017) and then 118.82 (2019 low Jan.3 ‘flash crash’).

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