EUR is a midperformer – Scotiabank

Euro (EUR) is up a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a relative performer among the G10 in an environment of mild USD weakness. The release of final euro area CPI was unchanged from the preliminary print, at 1.9% y/y on headline and 2.3% y/y on core, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Final CPI unchanged from preliminary 1.9% print

"The release was the last major source of economic data scheduled for the week, shifting the focus to broader themes and market sentiment. Headline risk will continue to be driven by geopolitical developments, and we look to some risk in Thursday’s speech from ECB President Lagarde.

"Short-term rate expectations have recovered somewhat, fading the extent of easing expected in the next several quarters. Markets are still pricing about 25bpts of easing by March, fading about 10bpts of cuts in the last few weeks."

The trend is bullish, despite Tuesday’s modest pullback. The momentum continues to confirm the trend and the 50 day MA (1.1353) remains an important level of medium-term support. We look to near-term support around 1.1450 and near-term resistance above 1.1600.