EUR/GBP trades with modest losses near mid-0.8600s ahead of ECB’s Lagarde, Eurozone CPI

The EUR/GBP cross attracts fresh sellers near the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Friday and stalls the overnight rebound from the 0.8630 area, or a one-week low. Spot prices remain depressed, around mid-0.8600s during the early European session, though the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of this week's rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA.

The shared currency's relative underperformance on the last day of the week could be attributed to the disappointing German macro data, which, in turn, is seen exerting some pressure on the EUR/GBP cross. Retail Sales in Germany – the Eurozone's largest economy – unexpectedly fell for the second straight month, by 1.2% in August. Furthermore, the statistics office reported that the German Import Prices Index recorded the largest year-on-year decline since November 1986 and declined by 16.4% in August.

This comes on the back of the preliminary data from the federal statistics office on Thursday, which showed that the annualized German CPI moderated to the 4.8% YoY rate in September and signals the beginning of the end for the high inflation. Adding to this, speculations about a possible contraction in GDP during the second half of the year reaffirm bets that additional rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) may be off the table for now. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the ECB President 
Christine Lagarde's speech.

Traders on Friday will further take cues from the flash Eurozone CPI print, which if surprises to the downside will reaffirm that the ECB's 14-month-long policy tightening cycle could have reached its peak and prompt fresh selling around the Euro. That said, the Bank of England's (BoE) surprise pause in its rate-hiking cycle earlier this month could undermine the British Pound (GBP) and limit losses for the EUR/GBP cross. Moreover, the fact that the UK central bank provided little hints of its intention to raise rates any further warrants caution for bears.

Technical levels to watch