EUR/GBP ticks down to near 0.8400 ahead of ECB’s monetary policy decision

EUR/GBP edges lower to near 0.8410 ahead of the monetary policy announcement by the ECB.
The ECB is almost certain to lower interest rates by 25 bps.
The BoE is unlikely to reduce its key borrowing rates in the policy meeting this month.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/GBP pair trades slightly lower around 0.8410 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces moderate selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.

The ECB is all set to reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the seventh consecutive time. This will be the eighth interest rate cut by the ECB since June last year, when it started the monetary expansion cycle.

The return of Eurozone inflation to the ECB’s target of 2% and growing concerns over the trading bloc’s economic outlook in the wake of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump have increased investors’ confidence that the central bank will reduce interest rates.

Investors would look for cues about whether the ECB will continue lowering its key borrowing rates in the second half of the year through the monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the interest rate decision.

In late May, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras indicated that he is comfortable with traders’ dovish bets for the policy meeting in June, but anticipates a pause after that. "I expect one more interest rate cut in June and then a pause," Stournaras said, Greek News media reported.

On the economic front, German Factory Orders data for April has come in better than projected. Fresh Orders in the manufacturing sector rose moderately by 0.6% on month, compared to a 3.4% increase seen in March, revised lower from 3.6%. However, economists anticipated the data to have declined by 1%.

Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is being driven by market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on June 19 in a light economic calendar week. The BoE is less likely to cut interest rates again due to a significant increase in inflation in April. However, there will be May United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data a day before the BoE’s interest rate decision.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD stuck as the RBA talks tough into a slowdown

The Australian Dollar is going nowhere in a hurry, and the contradiction at its core explains why. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps dangling the prospect of another hike, yet the economy it governs just expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, a clear step down from the prior pace. A central bank threatening to tighten into a visible slowdown is not a recipe for conviction in either direction, and the tape shows it.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold declines below $4,500 on stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks, US NFP data looms

Gold price edges lower to near $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

DeFi hack losses drop 80% from 2022 peak as security defenses improve — Immunefi

Losses from decentralized finance exploits have fallen by 80% since reaching a record high in 2022, according to a report released by Immunefi. The report, which analyzed exploit-driven losses across major blockchain ecosystems between 2020 and 2025, found that DeFi protocol losses declined from $2.62 billion in 2022 to $534 million in 2024.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.