|

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro languishes at five-month lows below 0.8630

  • EUR/GBP flatlines at five-month lows near 0.8625.
  • Eurozone Services PMI and inflation data are unlikely to support the pair.
  • The Euro has broken the neckline of a large bearish Head & Shoulders pattern.

The Euro remains practically flat, a few pips above a fresh five-month low, at 0.8620 against a stronger British Pound on Wednesday. The pair has been trending lower since peaking at 0.8865 in mid-November, and extended losses this week, breaking below a key support area at 0.8645, with no sign of a reaction in sight.

In the calendar on Wednesday, Eurozone inflation data is expected to confirm the deflationary pressure that prompted European Central Bank board Member Martin Kocher to raise the possibility of further rate cuts last week. Apart from that, the Services PMI is likely to confirm that the sector grew at its slowest pace of the last four months in January. Altogether, not the kind of data that would guarantee a steady Euro recovery.

The UK Global S&P Services PMI, by contrast, is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity accelerated to a 21-month high of 54.3 in January, from 51.4 in December.

Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP has broken the neckline of a large H&S pattern

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8627, after breaking the neckline of a large Head and Shoulders pattern, in the area of 0.8645, as can be best seen in the daily chart. This is a bearish sign that might confirm the end of the upward trend witnessed through most of 2025.

Technical indicators in the daily chart suggest a growing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below its signal just under the zero line, with a mildly expanding negative histogram. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline without signaling oversold, indicating bearish pressure.

Next supports are at the intraday low of 0.8423, and the August 15 low in the area of 0.8600. The H&S pattern's measured target is near the June 10 low, at the 0.8420 area. To the upside, the mentioned H&S neckline, at 0.8645, is likely to act as resistance now. A clear move above here cancels the bearish view and brings the January 27 high, at 0.8716, into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.10%-0.26%0.95%0.17%-1.25%-0.54%0.45%
EUR-0.10%-0.40%0.87%0.07%-1.36%-0.64%0.35%
GBP0.26%0.40%1.16%0.47%-0.96%-0.25%0.75%
JPY-0.95%-0.87%-1.16%-0.77%-2.21%-1.43%-0.76%
CAD-0.17%-0.07%-0.47%0.77%-1.40%-0.69%0.28%
AUD1.25%1.36%0.96%2.21%1.40%0.72%1.73%
NZD0.54%0.64%0.25%1.43%0.69%-0.72%1.00%
CHF-0.45%-0.35%-0.75%0.76%-0.28%-1.73%-1.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.