EUR/USD holds marginal gains following poor services activity data
- EUR/USD keeps trading above 1.1800 with weekly lows, at 1.1775, still at hand.
- Eurozone Services PMI reveals that the sector's activity slowed beyond expectations in January
- All eyes are now on the Eurozone HICP data, which is expected to show easing price pressures.
The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.1825 at the time of writing, and relatively close to the weekly bottom, near 1.1775. The Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has disappointed, but the impact on the pair has been limited, as traders await January's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) before taking investment decisions.
Consumer prices in the Euro area are expected to remain steady below the European Central Bank's (ECB's) 2% target rate, which would pave the path for the bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, as it is widely expected. There is, however, the risk of a cooler-than-expected inflation, which might feed speculation about further rate cuts, sending the EUR lower.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains steady. US President Trump has signed a bill into law that ends a two-day government shutdown, easing markets, which are still celebrating the pick of Kevin Warsh as the replacement for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Warsh is a respected policymaker who is expected to be cautious with rate cuts and guarantee the central bank's autonomy.
In the economic calendar, before the Eurozone inflation figures, the final Services PMI data will show the health of the sector and could impact Euro crosses. In the US, investors will analyze with particular interest the ADP Employment Change report, as the key Nonfarm Payrolls report will be delayed due to the recent government shutdown.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.24% | 0.44% | -0.01% | -0.19% | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.18% | 0.54% | 0.06% | -0.12% | 0.29% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.24% | 0.18% | 0.69% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.47% | 0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.44% | -0.54% | -0.69% | -0.45% | -0.63% | -0.23% | -0.45% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.24% | 0.45% | -0.19% | 0.22% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.12% | -0.05% | 0.63% | 0.19% | 0.40% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.22% | -0.29% | -0.47% | 0.23% | -0.22% | -0.40% | -0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.24% | 0.45% | 0.00% | -0.18% | 0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: The Euro is going through a frail recovery
- The Euro has bounced up from lows but remains miles away from last week's highs, with investors awaiting Eurozone inflation figures for further insight into the direction of the ECB's monetary policy.
- Earlier on Tuesday, HCOB Services PMI data revealed that the sector's activity slowed down to a four-month low of 51.6, below the preliminary expectations of a 51.9 reading, down from December's 52.4.
- Likewise, the German HCOB Services PMI has been revised lower to 52.4 from preliminary estimations of a 53.3 reading, and also down from the 52.7 reading seen in December. These figures confirm that business activity in the Eurozone's main economy remains sluggish.
- Later on Wednesday, January's preliminary HICP data is expected to show that price pressures eased further, to a 1.7% year-on-year growth, from 1.9% in December and 2.1% in November. The core HICP, more relevant from the monetary policy perspective, is seen growing steadily at a 2.3% yearly pace.
- At the same time, the Eurozone Producer Price Index is expected to show higher deflationary pressures, featuring a 2.3% year-on-year contraction in December, following a 1.7% decline in November, and providing further evidence that a strong Euro is pushing inflation lower.
- In the US, the focus will be on January's ADP private payrolls report, which will be the main employment data this week. Net job creation is expected to have increased to 48K last month from 41K in December, still at relatively low levels.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD must break above 1.1875 to confirm a trend shift
EUR/USD shows a moderate recovery from Monday's lows at 1.1775, with indicators on the 4-hour chart highlighting a fading bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line seems about to cross above the signal line, in what would be a bullish move, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached levels right below the 50 line, which divides the bearish from the bullish area.
Price action, however, remains trapped within Monday's trading range. Bulls would need to break the weekly top at the 1.1875 area to confirm the pair's recovery and aim for the resistance area between the January 29 high, at 1.1995, and the 1.2000 psychological level.
Immediate support is at the February 2 and 3 lows, in the mentioned 1.1775 area. Further down, bears might be attracted by the January 21 low, near 1.1660.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
HCOB Services PMI
The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Last release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 51.6
Consensus: 51.9
Previous: 51.9
Source: S&P Global
Economic Indicator
HCOB Services PMI
The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Last release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 08:55
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.4
Consensus: 53.3
Previous: 53.3
Source: S&P Global
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
