EUR/GBP catches a bid to 0.8585, but UK data, ECB loom ahead

The EUR/GBP sees recovery from early Monday’s slide, but progress remains limited.
UK wages, unemployment data to pluck away at the GBP for the early week.
ECB rate call on the cards will cap the week off with volatility if comments or actions surprise.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The EUR/GBP pairing continues to look for a foothold on the charts, but this week brings key United Kingdom (UK) data and a critical rate call from the European Central Bank (ECB). Showings for both currencies threaten to keep the EUR/GBP pair hamstrung as sentiment drifts back and forth between the two.

UK data coming into view, ECB rate call ahead

The UK faces wage growth, unemployment, and industrial activity figures for the first half of the trading week. Wage figures, while slowly declining, remain elevated. The UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt noted over the weekend that the Bank of England (BoE) is facing stickier inflation than they previously forecast.

Stubborn inflation issues are partly driven by elevated wage growth, and if figures remain too high for too long it could mire the BoE, making an outright dovish or hawkish stance difficult to maintain.

On the Euro side of the data calendar, the ECB is slated to publish its latest rate call during Thursday’s market session. Market participants are increasingly convinced that the rate hike cycle has peaked in Europe, despite hawkish jawboning from ECB officials recently.

Market forecasts broadly anticipate the ECB to stand pat on rates for September’s meeting, though any nasty surprises from the ECB could throw markets for a loop.

UK-EU economic calendar, Monday through Thursday. All times GMT.

EUR/GBP technical outlook

The Euro (EUR) is looking for a leg up against the Pound Sterling (GBP) in the markets today, trading into a session high of 0.8587. The pair started the trading week on a decidedly softer tone, with the Euro declining to 0.8558 before facing a rally on the back of a waffling GBP.

Longer-term, the pair is looking decidedly constrained, with the EUR/GBP trading into familiar territory for the past three months. The pair refuses to decline any further, marking its territory above the 0.8500 handle, but resistance from a declining 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8585 is capping upside momentum.

EUR/GBP daily chart

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD edges above 1.1750 due to ECB-Fed policy divergence

EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data later in the day.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 on Fed rate cut bets, BoE's gradual policy path

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend.

Gold climbs to near $4,350 on Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks

Gold price rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. Gold finished 2025 with a significant rally, achieving an annual gain of around 65%, its biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin trades in compression as 2026 begins with structure still unresolved

BTC/USD remains locked in a two-way structure, with micro supply-and-demand levels guiding early-year price behaviour.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is. Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).