EUR: European Commission autumn forecasts in focus – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

In focus on a quiet Monday will be the European Commission's autumn forecasts. In spring, the EC downgraded the 2025 and 2026 euro area GDP forecasts to 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, with inflation at 2.5% and 1.7%. It looks too soon to expect any major upgrades here, although eurozone GDP has been surprising slightly on the upside so far this year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Plenty of European Central Bank speakers on Monday

"The next important set of releases for the euro will be Friday's flash PMIs for November. Remember, these have been holding up quite well and are suggesting that businesses could be learning to live with the uncertain international environment here. Fascinating here are events in Germany, where any move to lock in lower energy prices for German industry would no doubt be very much welcomed by local industry. Let's see whether these encouraging proposals can move ahead."

"The stronger US Dollar (USD) has dragged EUR/USD back to 1.1600. We would expect some demand to come in should it correct lower to the 1.1560/80 area. There are also plenty of European Central Bank speakers today. The main focus will probably be on Chief Economist Philip Lane, who speaks at 3:45pm CET in Ireland. And actually, the market has recently been pricing out the chance that the ECB needs one last cut in its easing cycle."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD looks firm well above 1.1600

EUR/USD picked up a bid on Monday, pushing up toward the 1.1650 area in response to fresh weakness around the US Dollar, all following President Trump threats to escalate tariffs on eight European countries opposing his proposal to take Greenland. With US stock and bond markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, liquidity is likely to be thin.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3400 and above

GBP/USD found its footing after a soft start to the week, edging slightly above 1.3400 on Monday. The Btitish Pound benefits from a weaker Greenback, as markets react to President Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland.

Gold targets $4,700 on broad USD selling

Gold attracts strong buying interest at the start of the week, surging to a fresh record high near $4,700 per troy ounce. Markets turned more cautious after US President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries opposing his plan to acquire Greenland, a shift that helped support the precious metal.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe in a freefall, echoing Bitcoin’s drop

Meme coins, such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe, extend the decline from last week, with a roughly 3% drop on Monday. The meme coins trade below the crucial moving averages, aiming for the immediate support to potentially reset the momentum.

When tariffs become ammunition and capital becomes the battlefield

Markets opened the week like a risk engine hitting a pothole at speed. Equities stepped back, gold vaulted to fresh highs, Treasuries caught a bid, and the dollar, outside of havens, took on a soft bid. This was not a data-driven wobble or a valuation purge.