EUR: European Commission autumn forecasts in focus – ING

In focus on a quiet Monday will be the European Commission's autumn forecasts. In spring, the EC downgraded the 2025 and 2026 euro area GDP forecasts to 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, with inflation at 2.5% and 1.7%. It looks too soon to expect any major upgrades here, although eurozone GDP has been surprising slightly on the upside so far this year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Plenty of European Central Bank speakers on Monday

"The next important set of releases for the euro will be Friday's flash PMIs for November. Remember, these have been holding up quite well and are suggesting that businesses could be learning to live with the uncertain international environment here. Fascinating here are events in Germany, where any move to lock in lower energy prices for German industry would no doubt be very much welcomed by local industry. Let's see whether these encouraging proposals can move ahead."

"The stronger US Dollar (USD) has dragged EUR/USD back to 1.1600. We would expect some demand to come in should it correct lower to the 1.1560/80 area. There are also plenty of European Central Bank speakers today. The main focus will probably be on Chief Economist Philip Lane, who speaks at 3:45pm CET in Ireland. And actually, the market has recently been pricing out the chance that the ECB needs one last cut in its easing cycle."