Economic wrap: mixed US, now awaiting Aussie jobs - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered an economic wrap.

Key Quotes:

"US housing starts fell 9.0% in September (vs +2.9% expected), indicating a weak quarter in Q3. However, building permits rose 6.3% (vs 1.1% expected), suggesting a stronger Q4.

The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions repeated the “modest to moderate” growth mantra: reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest national economic activity continued to expand during the reporting period from late August to early October. Most Districts indicated a modest or moderate pace of expansion.

Bank of Canada kept its policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as was widely expected, but said a rate cut was discussed. The economy is expected to return to full capacity by around mid-2018, later than previously expected.

Economic Event Risks Today

Australian labour force survey: sample volatility associated with attachment to the labour force largely explained Aug volatility and should also explain a consequent rebound in September. We look for a 30k rise in jobs against the market’s 15k expectation. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.7%, from 5.6%.

ECB is expected to leave policy on hold for now. The “whatever it takes’ mantra remains intact, but big questions remain over the sustainability of asset purchases through 2017.

US existing home sales should reverse August’s fall in September, with a 1% gain expected. The very modest uptrend should remain intact."

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