ECB: Risks for disappointment amid no fireworks – BofA

The analysts at Bank of America Global Research provide their expectations at what they expect from Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision, in the face of mounting coronavirus risks in the Old Continent.  

Key quotes

"The ECB should express its concerns in this week's meeting, in our view. The COVID-19 situation is fragile, and the cold weather season has barely begun. It is unclear if recent restrictions are enough. Eurozone core inflation is likely to weaken further, in our view, from already historic lows. Brexit remains unresolved and the recovery fund could be questioned and delayed. We could do with certainty that more ECB support is coming in December.”

“Committees being tasked would be a very clear signal, but maybe that is expecting too much this week.”

"In this context, we do not expect much from the ECB this week. A signal for PEPP expansion in December should already be mostly priced in, with risks for disappointment. Any indication for open-ended and inflation linked-PEPP would be a market surprise, in our view, but again, the communication for such a move would be important to determine the EUR impact.”

“In any case, we believe that in the short term the EUR depends more on global-COVID-and US-elections-factors, than the ECB. The EUR is not currently overvalued in our view-our EURUSD equilibrium estimate is 1.23-but the recent collapse in Eurozone inflation would justify a weaker EUR, in our view.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

NZD/USD jumps over 50 pips to print 29-month high on hints of RBNZ's remit change

NZD/USD rises to fresh highs since June 2018. New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson hints at adding house prices to the mandate. Risk-on mood also favors the kiwi bulls amid a light calendar.


Gold in bearish consolidation below $1840, remains vulnerable

Gold (XAU/USD) is nursing losses in Tuesday’s Asian trading, having slumped 2% on Monday to reach the lowest levels in four months at $1831. Vaccine progress, stronger US data hammer gold prices. Focus on vaccine updates and risk sentiment for fresh impetus.

Gold news

AUD/USD advances above 0.73 on Biden transition news, mixed Aussie data

AUD/USD extends gains above 0.7300 amid mixed Australian trade data and the upbeat market mood. The risk sentiment got a boost following reports that the US GSA has started the formal Biden transition process. S&P 500 futures rise 0.50%. RBA Debelle's speech awaited. 


S&P 500 Futures looks to regain 3,600 as US GSA begins Biden transition

S&P 500 Futures gains half a percent in a fresh bid wave, nearing 3,600. Wall Street also marked upbeat performance in the last hours. Trump concedes defeat while ordering the GSA to start the transition. Odds that ex-Fed Chair Yellen will become Treasury Secretary, vaccine hopes favor the bulls.

Read more

Black Friday 2020 Discounts!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info