Dramatic change in the oil supply reaction function still ahead – Goldman Sachs

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Early Wednesday morning, Goldman Sachs (GS) came out with their upbeat analysis of oil prices with key comments like, “The market has far overshot the likely impact of the latest variant on oil demand.”

“Given the large uncertainties at this time, we await further news on the variant's development and additional restrictions imposed before refreshing our supply and demand balances and oil price forecasts,” adds GS.

The US-based bank also expects the structural repricing higher due to the dramatic change in the oil supply reaction function lying ahead.

Additional important quotes

Negative gamma effects are when swap dealers increasingly need to sell futures to hedge the oil price risk taken on by selling put options to producers.

The lack of discretionary buying activity in the face of an uncertain new COVID variant has therefore left prices in free-fall and pricing in a dire demand outlook.

This would represent any of these extreme outcomes: (1) not a single plane flying around the world for three months, or (2) half as intense as the 2020 global lockdown, or (3) a world even worst-off than before vaccinations: the combination of global jet demand falling to last winter's level (-1 mb/d), a twice as large hit to EU demand as the Alpha variant last winter (-2 mb/d) and twice as large a hit to Chinese demand as the Delta variant this summer (-1 mb/d).

WTI refreshes intraday high

Following the release, WTI crude oil prices extend the latest bounce off late August levels, refreshing intraday high around $67.40-45.

Read: WTI consolidates the day's worst drop in 3-months

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold meets contention near $4,420…for now

Gold extends its recovery past the $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin’s massive storm is back: Why the sell-off is far from over

Bitcoin price action over the last few weeks has felt less like a normal, healthy correction and more like a slow grinding crash that continues to wreak havoc on holdings and trading accounts. And everything suggests that the dramatic crash isn’t over.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.