|premium|

Dow futures advance after Trump-EU tariff delay ahead of Nvidia, Salesforce earnings

  • Futures market gains on Monday during the Memorial Day closure.
  • Trump's walk back of EU tariffs to July 9 boosts equity futures.
  • Dow Jones futures rise more than 1% on reduced tariff risk.
  • Salesforce and Nvidia report Q1 earnings on Wednesday after market close.

Though markets are closed in the United States (US) for the Memorial Day holiday, stock investors bored with barbecue and checking their phones will notice that the futures market has shifted bullish ahead of the Tuesday open. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have all advanced around 1% or more on Monday after US President Donald Trump walked back last week's harsh tariff rhetoric.

At the time of writing, Dow futures are up 1.08%, while the NASDAQ 100 futures advance 1.52%.

On Sunday afternoon, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to push his earlier deadline of June 1 to July 9 for a trade deal with the European Union (EU). The Dow Jones shed 2.5% last week as Trump raised the specter of 50% tariffs on the EU due to flagging movement on a trade deal.

Trump post on EU tariff delay with Ursula von der Leyen

Trump post on Truth Social on May 25, 2025

It appears from his post that discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen led Trump to quickly buckle under pressure. Trump moving to delay the earlier June 1 deadline leads the market to expect a less harsh tariff on European goods seven weeks from now. Trump originally tariffed the EU at 20% in early April before walking it back to 10% as negotiations got underway.

Harsh rhetoric followed by delay and reduced tariff rates has been the trend since early April, and this will be more fuel for equity bulls, who are ready to toss aside worries over Trump's ongoing global trade war.

UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan said as much: "These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them."

Still, Donovan believes that the threats work to create an air of uncertainty for the markets. "First, even if no one thinks the threats will be carried out, firms will need to put in place some insurance. [...] Second, wild swings in policy making increase risks in markets - and a general sense of unpredictability requires a risk premium."

Stock market news: 30-year Treasuries

Bank of America has started the week by offering up a surprising contrarian trade on Memorial Day. Analysts at the bank say to go long 30-year US Treasuries while sentiment is overwhelmingly negative.

Michael Hartnett pointed to the 30-year Treasury ending last Friday at a 5.04% yield, its highest level since October 2023 and, before that, the summer of 2007.

This yield level is "negative for today's highly 'financialized' US economy relative to Rest-of-World, and bond vigilantes are incentivized to punish unambiguously unsustainable path of debt & deficit," wrote Hartnett.

Hartnett thinks the so-called "bond vigilantes" will eventually push the 5-year, now at 4.09%, back toward 3% and that the 30-year will travel in the same direction toward a sustainable level. Of course, lower Treasury yields are good for equity prices as they move inversely.

Investors will welcome some insight into the path of Treasuries as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to release its Meeting Minutes from its early May decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders will try to discern if the central bank cares more about inflation or about unemployment, its two primary mandates.

Stock market news: Nvidia, Salesforce earnings

Another note on the calendar is keeping investors upbeat. Two of the Dow Jones' tech stars are scheduled to release quarterly results after the close on Wednesday. That means that Tuesday is likely to see traders buying up both stocks.

Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to earn $0.73 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) on revenue of $43.17 billion. The EPS figure is an 18% decline from the fourth quarter as Nvidia deals with new trade barriers on its H20 chip, an AI chip built to meet Biden-era export restrictions. The Trump administration then also blocked sales of the H20 to China, but Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has made statements recently that the White House is rethinking its overall strategy on export bans.

However, the EPS forecast is still up nearly 20% compared with the same quarter a year ago. The revenue projection is up 66% from a year earlier, demonstrating how strong demand is for Nvidia's AI product suite. Oracle (ORCL) announced last week that it plans to purchase $40 billion alone of Nvidia AI chips to power a new OpenAI data center in Texas. Nvidia stock is down over 2% year to date.

Salesforce (CRM) stock, down over 18% year to date, is expected to report $2.55 in adjusted EPS in Q1, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Revenue is projected to come in at $9.75 billion, up 6.8% from a year earlier. The market will look to the level of growth in its new Agentforce platform.

NVDA-CRM daily stock chart over one year

NVDA and CRM daily stock chart showing the past year of performance

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Clay Webster

Clay Webster

FXStreet

Clay Webster grew up in the US outside Buffalo, New York and Lancaster, Pennsylvania. He began investing after college following the 2008 financial crisis.

More from Clay Webster
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 with bullish momentum losing steam

The British Pound ticks lower against the US Dollar Monday, attempting to close a seven-day rally, as tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical points in the peace process between Washington and Tehran. The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3340 at the time of writing, down from 1.3387 highs last week, although it maintains a near-term bullish trend intact.

EUR/USD trims losses, back to 1.1430

EUR/USD remains under pressure on Monday, although it now manages to trim its earlier losses and return to the 1.1430 zone, down marginally for the day. The pair’s mild pullback comes on the back of modest gains in the US Dollar in quite an apathetic start to the week.

Gold meets resistance around $4,200

Gold comes under fresh downside pressure on Monday, reversing three daily upticks in a row and meeting some initial resistance around the $4,200 mark per troy ounce. Safe-haven demand has shifted toward the US Dollar as renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz weigh on market sentiment, limiting the precious metal's upside.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pull back amid persistent ETF outflows

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing widespread weakness on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding under the $63,000 mark amid ongoing risk aversion.

The US Dollar just beat the Swiss Franc at its own safe-haven game

As the king among safe havens, the Swiss Franc is supposed to benefit from geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war. This time, it didn’t. The Swissie is nearly 6% below January’s peak against the USD after a sharp decline that came along with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.