Crude Oil slides for a fifth day this week on Fed rate concerns
- Oil prices set for a weekly loss in this final normal trading week of 2024.
- The hawkish message from the Fed on rate cuts for 2025 has scared investors away from commodities.
- The US Dollar Index did hit a two-year high for a third day this week and undergoes some profit-taking.
Crude Oil prices look unable to avoid a weekly loss of around 2% in yet another downbeat trading day. The mood turned further negative overnight as investors got concerned about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, which could quickly kill off any economic boosts from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump warned Europe that if the region does not boost its Gas and Oil buying from the US to make good on its trade deficit with the country, it will face tariffs instead.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) – which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies – hit a fresh two-year high during the Asian trading session on Friday. The hawkish tilt from the Fed is pushing US Treasury rates higher, driving the wedge between US rates and other countries even bigger in favor of a more expensive US Dollar. Should the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data come in higher than anticipated on Friday, the last two interest rate cut projections for 2025 could get priced out, resulting in an even higher US Dollar.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.77 and Brent Crude at $72.02
Oil news and market movers: Scrambled week next week
- President-elect Donald Trump has threatened the European Union with tariffs if its member countries don’t buy more American Oil and Gas, Bloomberg reports.
- China’s biggest refiner, Sinopec, said on Thursday that the nation’s gasoline demand peaked last year, adding to an already-weak outlook in the world’s top crude importer, Bloomberg reported.
- A group of seven nations are looking into ways to toughen sanctions on Russian Oil. Although there is no consensus yet on the next steps, options under consideration range from an outright ban to lowering the price cap to about $40 a barrel from the current $60, Reuters reports.
- At 18:00 GMT, the weekly Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is due. There are no expectations for this data, with the previous number at 482. The rig count is set to close off 2024 at rather low levels, seeing the peak in April around 511 rigs accounted for. Under Donald Trump’s previous presidency, at one point, the rig count amassed to 888 rigs.
- For next week, the US government data on oil inventories will be published on Thursday Dec. 26, a day later than usual due to the Christmas Day holiday.
Oil Technical Analysis: No such thing as too little Oil?
Crude Oil prices have attempted and failed to reach any upside above the $70.00 level. The risk now could turn into a squeeze, where sellers reduce their hedges for higher Oil prices and might set off a nasty correction in the Oil market. With a lot of Oil contracts set to expire under the so-called Quadruple Witching (each third Friday of March, June, September, and December, four types of financial contracts expire simultaneously: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures), excess volatility could see Oil tank quickly to $67 in search of support.
Looking up, $71.46 (February 5 low) and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.82 act as firm resistance levels. If Oil traders can plow through those levels, the next pivotal level will be $75.27 (January 12 high). However, watch out for quick profit-taking as the year-end quickly approaches.
On the downside, the 55-day SMA at $69.90 has been chopped up too many times this week and has lost relevance for now. That means that $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 and during the last quarter of 2024 – is still the first solid support nearby. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Filip Lagaart
FXStreet
Filip Lagaart is a former sales/trader with over 15 years of financial markets expertise under its belt.
