Copper market tight at the short end, and in the medium term? – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The significant decline in available Copper stocks registered on the LME is also having an impact on the Copper market: The forward curve at the front end is in massive backwardation; the spot price for a ton of Copper climbed back above $10,000 yesterday, bringing the premium on the 3-month contract to almost $380, its highest level since the record high in 2021, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

China's Copper boom may continue

"Unlike on the aluminum market, however, the new LME measures do not appear to be having any effect here, as it is probably not individual market participants who are holding high positions, but rather the rise in the spot price is related to the current buying rush in the US due to the threat of US tariffs."

"In addition to this short-term shortage on the market, the question of long-term supply continues to arise: Reports of possible deals with negative processing fees for Copper smelters have caused concern in this regard."

"However, market sources now say that Chinese smelters are entering into negotiations for longer-term contracts with at least slightly positive processing fees. This is somewhat easing concerns that China's Copper boom could come to a rapid end."

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