Compared to Estimates, Alaska Air (ALK) Q3 earnings: A look at key metrics

For the quarter ended September 2025, Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) reported revenue of $3.77 billion, up 22.6% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.05, compared to $2.25 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.32% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.11, the EPS surprise was -5.41%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Alaska Air performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

• Passenger Load Factor: 84.8% versus the five-analyst average estimate of 85%.

• Economic fuel cost per gallon: $2.51 versus the four-analyst average estimate of $2.53.

• Available seat miles (ASM): 24.45 billion compared to the 24.7 billion average estimate based on four analysts.

• Total revenue per ASM (RASM): 15.41 cents versus the four-analyst average estimate of 15.85 cents.

• Revenue passenger miles (RPM): 20.74 billion compared to the 21.04 billion average estimate based on four analysts.

• Passenger Yield: 16.51 cents versus 17.04 cents estimated by three analysts on average.

• Operating expenses per ASM, excluding fuel and special items: 11.23 cents compared to the 11.51 cents average estimate based on three analysts.

• Fuel gallons: 303.00 Mgal compared to the 298.12 Mgal average estimate based on three analysts.

• Total Passenger Revenue: $3.42 billion compared to the $3.53 billion average estimate based on five analysts.

• Revenue- Loyalty program other revenue: $200 million versus $213 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +17% change.

• Revenue- Cargo and other: $142 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $145.61 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +77.5%.

• Operating Revenues- Passenger - Hawaiian: $768 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $699.93 million.

Shares of Alaska Air have returned -9.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.

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