China’s property sector risks falling into bear market – Citibank


China’s home prices are at risk of “meaningful downside” regardless of what happens to China Evergrande Group, Bloomberg reports, citing analysts at Citigroup.

Key quotes

“It seems clear that even in an orderly restructuring, the property sector in China is likely to face downside pressures. “

While authorities try to limit lower real estate prices due to fire sales by Evergrande by implementing price floors, price controls typically do not work.” The note was titled “A Bear Market in Chinese Property.”

“The fallout would be most pronounced in global commodity markets, as well as emerging-world credit and currencies,” Citigroup’s simulation-based on China’s last severe property downturn in 2014 showed. 

“We fear that the China slowdown will eventually have an impact on commodities, which are a key economic driver for many EM economies.”

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