China Securities Journal: Economic recovery to provide strong support for Yuan
“The RMB (Chinese Yuan) exchange rate has accelerated adjustments, but the benchmark situation of a steady rise has not changed, showing a two-way fluctuation and a steady rise,” said the China Securities Journal (CSJ) while quoting Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist at BOC International and a former official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Key details
I believe that the current RMB exchange rate remains basically stable, the domestic foreign exchange supply and demand relationship is basically balanced, the leverage adjustment effect of the exchange rate is functioning normally, the market exchange rate expectation remains basically stable, and the stock exchange resonance has correlation but no causal relationship.
Based on the analysis of the above factors, the impact of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate on the financial market is generally limited.
Against the background of economic recovery, the stable operation of the capital market has a solid foundation.
The key factor affecting the RMB exchange rate is the fundamentals of the domestic economy.
Although the market has some differences on the specific trend of the future domestic economic recovery, the basic consensus is that the world economy is facing downside risks, and the Chinese economy is expected to recover overall.
Current benchmark situation of a stable and rising RMB exchange rate has not changed.
The RMB exchange rate will not be a linear unilateral trend, but a two-way fluctuation, rising steadily.
With the coordinated efforts of macroeconomic policies, the economy and society will fully resume normal operation.
If positive factors accumulate further and the domestic economic operation picks up steadily, under the circumstances that my country's basic international balance of payments is still relatively strong, it will affect the RMB exchange rate this year.
The policy level is clear, resolutely restrain the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.
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Author
Anil Panchal
FXStreet
Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.
