Canada: Retail sales likely to advance 1.4% in March - TDS

Analysts at TD are looking for the Canadian retail sales to build on recent gains with a 1.4% advance in March, reflecting broad strength in household goods consumption.

Key Quotes

“Gasoline stations and motor vehicle sales should lead the move, with the former benefitting from a 10% m/m increase in the price at the pump. This will allow the ex. autos measure to come in near the headline print at 1.3%, although sales should see more modest gains (0.8%) when excluding gasoline as well.”

“Core retail sales rose by 0.4% in February for their first increase since September and we expect this performance to continue into March on the heels of a sharp increase in consumer goods imports and strong labour market data.”

“Real retail sales should underperform the headline print owing to the sharp increase in gasoline prices although we still expect to see an increase of roughly 0.8% m/m. This is consistent with a flat print on Q1 after soft data in Jan/Feb which may reignite concerns about the Canadian consumer after an abysmal Q4, but it will provide a solid handoff to Q2.”