Canada Employment Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, jobs powering back from Omicron blow

Canada will release February employment figures on Friday, March 11 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. 

The country is expected to have added 160K new jobs in the month after the -200.1K setback suffered in January amid the outbreak of the coronavirus Omicron variant. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen down to 6.2% from 6.5%, while the Participation Rate is expected to tick marginally higher to 65.1%.

TDS

“We look for job growth of 160K in February as the labour market bounces back from Omicron lockdowns, with service-sector employment driving the rebound. This should pull the unemployment rate back to 6.2%, with an offsetting increase in labour force participation. We also expect a sharp increase for wage growth, helped by strong base-effects and a tight labour market.”

RBC Economics

“We expect February’s job report will retrace three-quarters of the 200K jobs lost in January. Hours worked are also expected to climb after falling 2.2% in January due to elevated worker absenteeism. With the economic impact of the virus fading, labour shortages will remain a more pressing issue for many businesses than a lack of orders. Indeed, high demand for workers and shrinking numbers of unemployed people mean wages are likely to rise.”

NBF

“Our call is for a 125K increase in employment, with gains concentrated in the provinces which had suffered the largest losses in January, namely Ontario and Quebec. Such an improvement in the labour market would allow the unemployment rate to decline four ticks to 6.1%, assuming the participation rate rose from 65.0% to 65.1%.”

CIBC

“Provincial economies had started to reopen by the beginning of February, which should have spurred a rebound in employment (125K). With labour force participation likely to rise again alongside the reopening of service industries and decline in Omicron cases from their January peak, the unemployment rate is expected to fall fairly modestly to 6.3%, from 6.5% in the prior month. Due to continued, and relatively strong, growth in the working-age population, a recovery in the unemployment rate back to its December 2021 level could take a couple more months.”

Citibank

“Canada Net Change in Employment (Feb) – Citi: 170K, median: 125K, prior: -200.1K; Unemployment Rate – Citi: 6.1%, median: 6.3%, prior: 6.5%. We expect a substantial rebound in February employment of 170k jobs though the trend of monthly job growth after February and March is much less clear.”