CAD makes limited progress on softer USD – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up the least against the USD among the G10 currencies so far today, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

CAD underperforms on the day

“That is probably because it was up the most on the strong USD overall last week. CAD outperformance was helped by narrower US/Canada spreads last week but scope for more CAD strength seems limited, however. In contrast to what are expected to be mostly positive key US data releases this week, the Canadian data release of most significance—GDP on Friday—may show growth momentum ebbing somewhat.”

“The soft USD tone overnight drove USDCAD below support at 1.3945/50 briefly. This area remains pivotal in the short run, I think. A clear break back under support could see spot ease back to the 1.3800/50 zone—which should represent deep value for USD buyers. Late morning European trade was a little more USD-positive, however, and a push back above 1.4020 resistance could see funds retest 1.41.”

“One quibble from the USD-positive perspective on the charts was its failure to hold the weekly break above 1.4040 retracement resistance last week. That could be a pointer to more chop and consolidation in the next few weeks.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.