|

British Pound declines on UK political uncertainty as Dollar gains amid Iran tensions

  • British Pound weakens as investors turn to safe-haven assets following renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
  • Political pressure intensifies in the UK after Labour Party election losses and calls for Keir Starmer to resign.
  • Markets await US inflation data and the UK’s first-quarter GDP figures later this week.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.3530 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.59% on the day, as renewed risk aversion supports the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).

Market sentiment deteriorates following fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to a CNN report published late Monday, US President Donald Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with how Iran is handling talks aimed at ending the conflict, while some members of his administration are now reportedly considering a resumption of major military operations more seriously.

This backdrop boosts demand for the US Dollar (USD), traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, rises 0.35% to around 98.30.

Investors also remain cautious ahead of the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 12:30 GMT. Consensus expects annual headline inflation to accelerate to 3.7% from 3.3% in March, while core inflation is projected at 2.7% versus 2.6% previously. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, further supporting the US Dollar.

Pound Sterling is also pressured by growing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK). More than 70 Labour Members of Parliament publicly called on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down following the party’s heavy losses in English local elections as well as parliamentary votes in Scotland and Wales.

Reuters reports that markets now fear a potential successor to Starmer could adopt a more expansionary fiscal stance, which could further strain the United Kingdom’s public finances and weigh on the British currency. Commerzbank also believes that a chaotic political transition or looser fiscal rules could place additional pressure on the British Pound.

On the macroeconomic front, investors are now looking ahead to the preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter, due on Thursday. Consensus expects quarterly growth of 0.6% after 0.1% previously. A weaker-than-expected release could reinforce concerns about slowing UK economic activity and add further downside pressure on the GBP.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.32%0.60%0.25%0.22%0.46%0.32%0.38%
EUR-0.32%0.27%-0.04%-0.12%0.13%-0.02%0.06%
GBP-0.60%-0.27%-0.34%-0.41%-0.15%-0.29%-0.22%
JPY-0.25%0.04%0.34%-0.08%0.16%0.04%0.09%
CAD-0.22%0.12%0.41%0.08%0.24%0.11%0.16%
AUD-0.46%-0.13%0.15%-0.16%-0.24%-0.12%-0.08%
NZD-0.32%0.02%0.29%-0.04%-0.11%0.12%0.05%
CHF-0.38%-0.06%0.22%-0.09%-0.16%0.08%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Ghiles Guezout

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

More from Ghiles Guezout
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD is defending 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold sheds 3%, eyeing $4,100 on renewed US-Iran risks

Gold is falling hard at the start of a new week, targeting $4,100 for the first time in eight weeks. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar hold firm, particularly after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Zcash risks a decline below $1,500 as bullish momentum eases

Zcash price hovers below $1,550 on Monday, extending losses after a 4% decline the previous day. Institutional interest in the privacy coin holds firm, recording over $35 million in inflows last week, while retail speculation takes a hit, with ZEC futures Open Interest down around 10% in 24 hours.

Data back in the driver’s seat this week
Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp. It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days. We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.