Indonesian Rupiah: Two-way trade with key levels watched against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/IDR has rebounded after a near 2% month-to-date pullback, with external factors such as elevated Oil prices and US rates remaining key drivers. They see policy continuity at BI and its focus on IDR stability as supportive for confidence, but stay slightly cautious near term, highlighting resistance at 17,950–18,100 and support at 17,800–17,600.

Consolidation with defined resistance and support

"IDR. Consolidation. USD/IDR rebounded following the near 2% pullback month-to-date. External factors still the main focus. Elevated oil prices remain a headwind for Indonesia’s terms of trade even as the broader USD backdrop has eased somewhat."

"Policy continuity at BI and its continued focus on IDR stability should be supportive of investor confidence and mitigate IDR volatility."

"Near term, we stay slight cautious on IDR, with oil prices, US rates and broader USD direction likely to remain the key drivers. Pair was last at 17875 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI rose. 2-way trades likely for now. "

"Resistance at 17950 (21, 50 DMAs), 18100 levels. Support at 17800, 17600 levels (100 DMA)."

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