Brexit turns three, but back to square one – Standard Chartered

Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that it is almost three years to the day that the UK voted to leave the EU, but the UK Parliament has thus far failed to agree on a way forward.

Key Quotes

“A new prime minister (PM) is now expected within the month and will try to reset the process to get the UK out by 31 October, but like Theresa May, he will face the same stark realities of Brexit.”

“The first stage of the Conservative leadership contest is over: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are the final two candidates. Now the Conservative Party membership will have its say, and while this race could experience twists and turns, Boris Johnson remains the frontrunner to become the next Conservative Party leader, and prime minister. But whoever wins will have just over four months until the current Article 50 deadline of 31 October 2019, and once the parliamentary summer recess and Party conference season are considered, the window is suddenly very tight for the next PM to get Brexit over the finish line.”

“Johnson as PM would raise the risk of a no-deal exit by the end of 2019, but he could also increase the likelihood that the EU will offer some concessions on the Irish backstop to avoid a no-deal scenario. However, if the UK Parliament again stopped a no-deal exit (by forcing the PM to request another Article 50 extension from the EU), a general election would likely become the preferred way of breaking the deadlock.”