|

Brent could test the low $80s if macro concerns continue to weigh on prices – Rabobank

Overall, crude oil and refined products have traded sideways for the month of October. Economists at Rabobank analyze Brent’s outlook.

Brent will touch, but not average, $100 at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024

Should gasoline demand continue to weaken, it would be a signal that the economic outlook has also worsened, sparking a financial sell-off of Brent and WTI of $10-12/bbl. However, this will be mitigated by the long-term physical outlook and ongoing geopolitical issues.

If macro concerns continue to weigh on prices, we could see the low $80s for Brent. 

We still believe that Brent will touch, but not average, $100/bbl at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD struggles to gather recovery momentum, holds above 1.3500

GBP/USD loses its recovery momentum and retreats after climbing above 1.3550 earlier in the day. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium and limits the pair's upside. In the meantime, re-escalating tensions in the Middle East cause investors to cling to a cautious stance.

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1600 after German inflation data

EUR/USD clings to moderate daily gains at around 1.1600 in the second half of the day on Monday. The data from Germany showed that the annual CPI inflation edged higher to 2.9% in August from 2.8% in July, as expected. Meanwhile, the US Dollar holds its ground and caps the pair's upside as investors reassess the probability of a September Fed rate hike after Fed Chair Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Gold holds recovery near $4,450; still cautious

Gold holds its recovery near $4,450 in the European session on Monday, moving away from sub-$4,400 levels, though the upside potential seems limited. A softer US Dollar offers some support to the precious metal and helps recover its intraday losses. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on curbing inflationary pressures on Friday lifted bets for a rate hike, which might keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding bullion.

Dogecoin whales take profits as rally loses momentum

Dogecoin trades near key support around $0.081 after declining more than 12% last week. On-chain data suggests some whale wallets are taking profits after DOGE’s recent surge. Meanwhile, derivatives data points to mild underlying strength, while technical indicators suggest bullish momentum is losing strength, leaving the meme coin’s near-term outlook mixed.

Oil rallies on fresh persian gulf strikes
Energy prices are trading firmer this morning after the US carried out targeted strikes against Iran, drawing retaliatory strikes and reinforcing concerns about a prolonged stalemate in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading.
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.