Breakout brewing? Next move for E-Mini?

As of 5:30 PM (July 16, 2025), the US500 Index Futures (SEP25) is consolidating around 6274.73 after a sharp bearish impulse from the recent high at 6340.84. The chart reflects a recent change of character (CHoCH) followed by a lower low at 6259.58, and price is now holding just above this low near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

A short-term bullish bounce may occur if price confirms support between 6257 and 6233, with upside targets near 6290 and 6328. However, failure to reclaim those levels may trigger a continuation of the downtrend, especially if price rejects around the 6316 resistance zone. A confirmed bearish setup there could target 6257 and potentially 6234.

Fundamentally, today's hotter-than-expected PPI data (0.2% vs 0.1%) points to underlying inflation pressures, while industrial production figures show mild recovery. This combination may provoke a cautious or hawkish stance from the Fed, especially with FOMC member Hammack scheduled to speak later. Astrologically, Mercury’s combustion in Leo along with Ketu’s presence in Virgo suggests heightened volatility and potential false breakouts, while retrograde Saturn in Pisces indicates delayed market reactions and the likelihood of repeated tests of key support/resistance levels.

Traders should remain cautious during news hours and look for clean structure confirmation before taking positions.

For buyers

• Enter only on confirmation near 6252.
• Watch for liquidity sweep – price must reclaim 6302 with strength.

For sellers

• Patience pays. Look for failure at 6316 zone with tight structure and BOS.
• Confirm bearish order block rejection or IDM formation.
• Avoid placing trades around NEW YORK open, during FOMC speech + Mercury combustion — expect spike candles.

Caution is key—wait for price confirmation near 6252 and only consider longs if 6302 is reclaimed with strength after a possible liquidity sweep. Sellers should exercise patience and watch for price failure around the 6316 zone, ideally backed by a clean bearish structure or IDM pattern. Discipline and timing remain essential in this setup.