Breaking: US core PCE inflation softens to 2.6% in March as expected
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, edged lower to 2.3% on a yearly basis in March from 2.5% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.2%
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in the same period, down from the 3% increase reported in February and in line with analysts' estimates. The core PCE Price Index was unchanged on a monthly basis.
Other details of the report showed that Personal Income and Personal Spending grew 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, on a monthly basis in March. Both of these figures came in better than investors' expectations.
Market reaction to PCE inflation data
The US Dollar Index holds its ground after the PCE inflation report and was last seen rising 0.35% on the day at 99.52.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.72% | 0.31% | 0.10% | 0.38% | 0.49% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | 0.47% | 0.03% | -0.16% | 0.12% | 0.24% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | -0.72% | -0.47% | -0.44% | -0.62% | -0.33% | -0.23% | -0.82% | |
| JPY | -0.31% | -0.03% | 0.44% | -0.22% | 0.07% | 0.23% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.16% | 0.62% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.39% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | -0.12% | 0.33% | -0.07% | -0.29% | 0.10% | -0.48% | |
| NZD | -0.49% | -0.24% | 0.23% | -0.23% | -0.39% | -0.10% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | 0.34% | 0.82% | 0.39% | 0.18% | 0.48% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Author
FXStreet Team
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