|

BoC Preview: Any benefit for CAD from a rate hike is unlikely to be sustained over the medium term – MUFG

Economists at MUFG Bank analyze CAD's outlook ahead of the Bank of Canada decision.

USD/CAD seen higher in 2024 as economic weakness is more pronounced in Canada than elsewhere

After a long pause the BoC in June hiked again and market pricing implies a 75% probability of another hike today. We remain unconvinced of the need to move. Yes, the jobs market was strong (59.9K increase in employment vs 20K expected) but wage inflation was weak with the hourly wage YoY rate falling from 5.1% to 3.9%. Does the BoC need to hike with the core Median YoY CPI rate down at 3.9% with further tightening still to feed into the real economy? 

Any benefit today for CAD from a rate hike is unlikely to be sustained over the medium term. 

We now forecast little change in USD/CAD through to year-end even as the Dollar weakens across G10 and then see USD/CAD higher in 2024 as economic weakness is more pronounced in Canada than elsewhere. 

See – BoC Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, enough evidence to pull the trigger on another 25 bps rate hike

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles for direction amid USD gains

EUR/USD is trimming part of its earlier gains, coming under some mild downside pressure near 1.1730 as the US Dollar edges higher. Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest rate decision, while also looking ahead to more commentary from Fed officials in the sessions ahead.

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3360

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold losses momentum, challenges $4,300

Gold now gives away some gains and disputes the key $4,300 zone per troy ounce following earlier multi-week highs. The move is being driven by expectations that the Fed will deliver further rate cuts next year, with the yellow metal climbing despite a firmer Greenback and rising US Treasury yields across the board.

Litecoin Price Forecast: LTC struggles to extend gains, bullish bets at risk

Litecoin (LTC) price steadies above $80 at press time on Friday, following a reversal from the $87 resistance level on Wednesday. Derivatives data suggests a bullish positional buildup while the LTC futures Open Interest declines, flashing a long squeeze risk.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.