BoC: On hold until the summer - TDS

Andrew Kelvin, senior Canada rates strategist at TD Securities, expects the BoC to tighten twice this year, and are looking for hikes to come in July and October.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday the Bank of Canada admitted that policy rates would only move back to the neutral range "over time", which we interpret as a signal that they will wait until the oil shock has mostly run its course before tightening again.”

“We still look for the BoC to tighten twice this year, but we now look for hikes in July and October. Previously we had forecast hikes in March and July.”

“We continue to look for a third BoC hike in January 2020, bringing the overnight rate into the bottom-end of the neutral range. However, if more downside surprises pile up, we caution that there may not be scope to reach 2.50% before the end of this cycle.”

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