Barrick Mining's Gold output rebounds: Can momentum build ahead?

Barrick Mining Corporation (B Quick) saw higher gold production in the second quarter, delivering 797,000 ounces, a 5% increase from the prior quarter. This follows a 30% sequential decline in the first quarter to 758,000 ounces, the lowest quarterly output in recent years, mainly impacted by the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. 

The upside in the second quarter was driven by Nevada Gold Mines, which saw an 11% increase from the previous quarter. Pueblo Viejo also delivered strong production, with output surging 28% on the back of higher throughput and continued progress on the expansion.

The company expects attributable gold production in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is expected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix.  

Moving ahead, the company is expected to continue the production momentum in the second half. Barrick expects 2025 production to be 54% weighted in the second half, with the strongest output expected in the fourth quarter. The consensus estimates call for a production of 828,000 ounces and 940,000 ounces in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, reflecting a sequential increase. 

Among its major peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM) reported a roughly 4% sequential decline in gold production for the second quarter, reaching 1.48 million ounces. The closing of non-core asset sales weighed on Newmont’s output. Newmont, which has shifted its focus to Tier 1 assets by divesting non-core businesses, anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. 

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) logged gold production of 866,029 ounces in the second quarter, down roughly 0.9% from the prior quarter. Agnico Eagle remains on track to meet its 2025 gold production target of around 3.3-3.5 million ounces. Agnico Eagle achieved around 51% of the mid-point of its full-year gold production guidance at mid-year.

The Zacks rundown for B

Shares of Barrick have popped 64.7% year to date against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 72.7%, largely a function of the gold price rally.

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From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.31, a roughly 16.7% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 13.57X. It carries a Value Score of A.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year uptick of 54.8% and 20.9%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

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B stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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