Australia Jobs Data: Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected (AUD bullish)

Aussie Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected/prior sends AUD higher.
AUD/USD spikes on a sigh of relief from the bulls, rallies to confluence resistance target, 0.6880.
Focus is now back on China, CPI and RBA.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The highly anticipated Australian Jobs data has been released.

Aussie jobs data

December Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected/prior - bullish! RBA odds of rate cut will be falling on this data.
December Employment +28.9K vs+15.0k expected, vs 39.9k prior.
December Full Time Employment -0.3K vs 4.2k prior.
December Participation Rate +66.0% vs 66.0% expected.

Full report

Australia's trend unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: "In December 2019, the trend unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since April 2019."

In December 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 18,000 people. Both full-time and part-time employment increased by around 9,000 people.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 261,000 people (2.1 per cent), which continued to be above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

Full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) was below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (1.6 per cent) and part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).

AUD/USD price action analysis, before and after

Before: AUD/USD Price Analysis: The price action and levels to look for on Aussie jobs

After: AUD was at 0.6840 just ahead of the release. AUD/USD rallied to 0.6870 on the release and then to 0.68762 to the high, a level predicted in AUD/USD Price Analysis: The price action and levels to look for on Aussie jobs as being a critical confluence area of resistance on a positive outcome.

The bullish channel is still intact

Meanwhile, bulls will now be hoping for a positive Consumer Price Index outcome (30.Jan) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia, 4th Feb. However, there will be a likely air of caution on the bid at this juncture ahead of those events, especially for the Chinese risks, with China now confirming 571 total cases of the new coronavirus. The US/Sino deal will also be a factor to consider and monitor for any pessimistic analysis in the markets.

All in all, the data is a well-needed plus for the bulls which now have some more breathing room ahead of the said key domestic events. The bullish channel is still intact!

Key notes

AUD/NZD lined up at critical support ahead of Aussie jobs data

Editor's notes

Australian employment Preview: Upbeat numbers could temper rate cut expectations. Australia expected to have added 15,000 new jobs in December RBA Governor’s Lowe “gentle turning point,” to be confirmed or denied with this report. AUD/USD technically bearish, upside potential limited by Chinese woes.

Description

The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD keeps the firm tone above 1.3600

GBP/USD clings to its daily gains, although it gives back some of them and recedes toward the 1.3630-1.3620 band on Thursday. Cable’s uptick comes despite the modest bounce in the Greenback, while investors gear up for key data releases on the UK calendar on Friday.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1670

EUR/USD gives away all its initial gains and receded to the sub-1.1700 region. The US Dollar’s late recovery has dragged the pair lower, leaving it practically unchanged following the NA session on Thursday. In the meantime, investors gear up for the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

Gold consolidates above $4,500 as rising bond yields offset reduced Fed hike bets

Gold holds steady above $4,500 during the Asian session on Friday amid a combination of diverging forces. Reduced Fed rate-hike bets keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and support the non-yielding bullion. However, higher US bond yields, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices due to the US-Iran standoff, could limit USD losses and cap the commodity. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to register gains for the third straight week.

Ethereum bulls defend rally above $2,300 despite rising profit-taking

Ethereum continued its rally on Thursday as capital gradually flowed back into the derivatives market after the recent leverage flush. ETH open interest, which is the total worth of outstanding contracts in a derivatives market, has risen by 270K ETH to 13.2M ETH over the past few hours.

Why long bonds have repriced the cost of money

The 30-year Treasury is 12 basis points below its highest level since before the financial crisis. Not its highest since 2023, or since the tightening cycle, but since June 12, 2007, the last time the longest bond in the world's deepest market yielded what it yields on Thursday. Getting there took two attempts and most of the year.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.