Australia Jobs Data: Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected (AUD bullish)


  • Aussie Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected/prior sends AUD higher. 
  • AUD/USD spikes on a sigh of relief from the bulls, rallies to confluence resistance target, 0.6880.
  • Focus is now back on China, CPI and RBA. 

The highly anticipated Australian Jobs data has been released.

Aussie jobs data

  • December Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected/prior - bullish! RBA odds of rate cut will be falling on this data. 
  • December Employment +28.9K vs+15.0k expected, vs 39.9k prior. 
  • December Full Time Employment -0.3K vs 4.2k prior.
  • December Participation Rate +66.0% vs 66.0% expected.

Full report

Australia's trend unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: "In December 2019, the trend unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since April 2019."

In December 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 18,000 people. Both full-time and part-time employment increased by around 9,000 people.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 261,000 people (2.1 per cent), which continued to be above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

Full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) was below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (1.6 per cent) and part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).

 

AUD/USD price action analysis, before and after

Before: AUD/USD Price Analysis: The price action and levels to look for on Aussie jobs

After: AUD was at 0.6840 just ahead of the release. AUD/USD rallied to 0.6870 on the release and then to 0.68762 to the high, a level predicted in AUD/USD Price Analysis: The price action and levels to look for on Aussie jobs as being a critical confluence area of resistance on a positive outcome. 

The bullish channel is still intact

Meanwhile, bulls will now be hoping for a positive Consumer Price Index outcome (30.Jan) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia, 4th Feb. However, there will be a likely air of caution on the bid at this juncture ahead of those events, especially for the Chinese risks, with China now confirming 571 total cases of the new coronavirus. The US/Sino deal will also be a factor to consider and monitor for any pessimistic analysis in the markets. 

All in all, the data is a well-needed plus for the bulls which now have some more breathing room ahead of the said key domestic events. The bullish channel is still intact!

Key notes

Editor's notes

Australian employment Preview: Upbeat numbers could temper rate cut expectations. Australia expected to have added 15,000 new jobs in December RBA Governor’s Lowe “gentle turning point,” to be confirmed or denied with this report. AUD/USD technically bearish, upside potential limited by Chinese woes.

Description

The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

 

 

 

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