AUD/USD has been traded a few pips away from the September highs of 0.7731 in a pro-risk environment ahead of the Aussie jobs data scheduled for today halfway into the Tokyo open.
AUD/USD has been trading in a bullish trend since 13th October and has made a full recovery of the downside that ensued in the end of September business. It has broken higher overnight and in a significant chart and bullish pattern of the head-and-shoulders neckline since August, among other bullish technical patterns. The key upside target is the mid August high of 0.7750. Can the jobs data offer bulls the amunition to get there today?
The jobs data will be keenly monitored by observers given the emphasis that the RBA minutes recently put on this factor of the Aussie economy. " Sample volatility associated with attachment to the labour force largely explained Aug volatility and should also explain a consequent rebound in September. We look for a 30k rise in jobs against the market's 15k expectation," explained analysts at Westpac, adding, "The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.7%, from 5.6%."
Analysts at Westpac offered AUD/USD in a 1-3 month outlook as follows: "While further gains to around 0.77 are possible during the month ahead, driven in part by the faltering US dollar and yield-chasing flows, the AUD is losing energy (perhaps a reflection of its declining yield advantage). By year end, there’s a case for a correction towards 0.74 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect."
Meanwhile, spot is presently trading at 0.7724, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7728 (Daily Classic R2), 0.7729 (Daily High), 0.7731 (Yesterday's High), 0.7734 (Weekly Classic R2) and 0.7764 (Daily Classic R3). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7722 (Daily Open), 0.7714 (Daily Low), 0.7699 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7697 (Daily Classic R1) and 0.7692 (Monthly High).