AUD/USD ticks lower as US Dollar trades firmly, US data eyed

AUD/USD ticks down marginally to near 0.6550 amid upbeat US Dollar.
Dovish remarks from Fed officials are expected to weigh on the US Dollar.
Investors await US data and RBA minutes.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.6550 during the late European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair faces a slight selling pressure as the US Dollar holds onto gains driven by recent political developments in Japan and France.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near its over two-month high around 99.50.

However, the outlook for the US Dollar remains uncertain as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver more interest rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see an 81.5% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in each of its remaining two monetary policy meetings this year.

Additionally, Fed officials are also arguing in favour of extending the monetary expansion cycle amid growing labour market risks. "We’re to a point now where the softening in the labor market looks like it could be more worrisome if we don’t risk manage it, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday, Reuters reported.

In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations data for October, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to have deteriorated to 54.2 from 55.1 in September.

Going forward, the next trigger for the Australian Dollar (AUD) will be the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the September policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. In the policy meeting, the RBA held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6% amid upside inflation risks.

“Components of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) are little higher than expected, inflation is not running away,” RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said.

Economic Indicator

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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