AUD/USD soars to 0.6718 amid catastrophic SVB bank collapse

The AUD/USD currency pair starts the week positively, trading at 0.6716 at the press time, up by 2.11% on the day.
Technical indicators, such as the daily 20-SMA and 50-SMA, suggest a potential bullish outlook for AUD/USD.
SVB banking catastrophe’s ripple effects and the consequences of the Fed’s rate hike decision support the pair.

Daily price movements:

AUD/USD currency pair opens the first day of a new week at 0.6575, with an intraday high of 0.6718 and a low of 0.6577. The pair trades at 0.6716 at the press time, up by 2.11% on the day, just below Monday’s ATH price.

The recent issues with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have highlighted the vulnerable state of US banks, which has dampened expectations for additional interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed). As a result, Goldman Sachs now predicts a delay in rate hikes in March, and the Fed Fund futures (*) have reduced the likelihood of a 0.50% increase in the Fed rate.

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level in a month, trading near 103.60 at the press time.

* Fed Fund futures directly reflect collective marketplace insight regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. (Source: CME Group’s website)

Key economic events:

Investors will be closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (excluding Food and Energy) data for February, set to be released on Tuesday, to gain a better understanding of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions on the pace of interest rate increases, which could impact the strength of the US Dollar.

Additionally, both the Employment Change s.a. (Feb) and Unemployment Rate s.a. (Feb) released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday will be the key economic events for AUD this week.

Technical view:

Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish outlook for the AUD/USD in the short term. The 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA are at 0.6777 and 0.6885, respectively, indicating a possible bullish trend. The daily 38.2% Fibonacci level is at 0.6593, with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.6611. The RSI(14) is at 44.516, indicating potential bullish momentum. Resistance levels for AUD/USD are at 0.6623, 0.6670, and 0.6699, while support levels stand at 0.6547, 0.6517, and 0.6471. The daily pivot point is at 0.6594.

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6715
Today Daily Change	0.0139
Today Daily Change %	2.11
Today daily open	0.6576

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6777
Daily SMA50	0.6885
Daily SMA100	0.6765
Daily SMA200	0.6777

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.664
Previous Daily Low	0.6564
Previous Weekly High	0.677
Previous Weekly Low	0.6564
Previous Monthly High	0.7158
Previous Monthly Low	0.6698
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6593
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6611
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6547
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6517
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6471
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6623
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.667
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6699

GBP/USD climbs to four-day highs near 1.3250

GBP/USD rapidly reverses Friday’s small losses and challenges the 1.3250 level, or four-day tops, at the beginning of the week. Cable’s upside comes on the back of further loss of momentum in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD extends the advance past 1.1400

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, trading above 1.1400 on Monday as broad-based US Dollar weakness lends support to the pair. In the meantime, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding efforts to end the US-Iran conflict, while attention gradually shifts to the ECB's annual forum and the US NFP data.

Gold falters just ahead of $4,100

Gold remains under modest bearish pressure just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal struggles to extend its recent gains as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revives inflation concerns and bolsters Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.