AUD/USD sits in familiar range as markets consolidate

AUD/USD is trading at around 0.6680 in early Asian Friday morning following a choppy number of sessions in financial markets. The pair traveled between a high of 0.6755 to a low of 0.6669 on Thursday but closed near its open and in the red as the US Dollar pared earlier losses on Thursday. The US Dollar index, DXY, which measures the currency against six major peers, was trading between 101.95 and 102.65 on the day.

Risk rallied as markets continued to digest the more dovish guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee, analysts at ANZ Bank said. ´´At the crux of future FOMC decisions will be the supply of credit in the economy. Current market interest rate pricing is skewed heavily towards expecting a persistent deterioration in the flow of credit,´´ the analysts explained. 

´´For the foreseeable future, the Fed will proceed cautiously. We maintain our 5.50% forecast for fed funds, which implies two more 25bp hikes. The Fed’s 2023 core PCE forecast of 3.6% implies that sequential inflation will soon subside. The data have yet to confirm that,´´ the analysts said.

Meanwhile, domestically, the minutes from the March Reserve Bank of Australia meeting suggested that the Board is considering a pause in the rate hike cycle. Another 25bp hike at the April meeting is being priced in, so far although this assumes that financial market volatility recedes.