- AUD/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Monday.
- A positive risk tone lends support to the risk-sensitive Aussie amid subdued USD demand.
- Rallying US bond yields acts as a tailwind for the buck and caps the upside for the major.
The AUD/USD pair lacks any firm intraday direction on Monday and oscillates in a narrow trading band around mid-0.6600s through the mid-European session. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of over a one-week low touched on Friday and seem vulnerable to prolonging last week's rejection slide from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A generally positive tone around the equity markets, bolstered by easing fears of a full-blown banking crisis, turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the risk-sensitive Aussie. News that First Citizens Bank & Trust Company will buy all of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) calm market nerves about the contagion risk. Furthermore, reports that US authorities were in the early stage of deliberation about expanding emergency lending facilities boost investors' confidence.
The risk-on flow, meanwhile, fails to assist the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its recent strong recovery from a multi-week low touched last Thursday, which further contributes to limiting the downside for the AUD/USD pair. That said, a strong follow-through rally in the US Treasury bond yields acts as a tailwind for the Greenback. This, along with a dovish signal from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Fed, hinting at a pause in the rate-hiking cycle, warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the major.
In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US on Monday, the US bond yields might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment could produce short-term trading opportunities, though the lack of any meaningful buying suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.
Technical levels to watch
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