|

AUD/USD regains 0.6900 amid corrective pullback ahead of RBA’s Lowe

  • AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend around eight-day low.
  • Markets consolidate recent losses amid a lack of major data/events.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, US PMIs raised concerns over economic slowdown and drowned the pair.
  • RBA’s Lowe may help buyers on repeating the latest hawkish bias.

AUD/USD pares recent losses around 0.6900 as recession fears stall, for the time being, amid a quiet Asian session on Friday. Also keeping the Aussie buyers hopeful is the scheduled speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, around 11:30 GMT.

Fears of economic slowdown triggered the market’s rush to risk safety the previous day, which in turn weighed on the AUD/USD prices due to its risk-barometer status. In doing so, the Aussie pair couldn’t cheer upbeat PMIs at home, nor the softer US activity numbers, as the US dollar benefited from the risk-aversion wave.

That said, the preliminary readings of Australia’s S&P Global PMIs for June came in mixed as the Manufacturing and Services PMIs rose past market forecasts and priors but the Composite PMI eased below the previous readouts. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.8 versus 54.7 expected and 55.7 prior whereas the S&P Global Services PMI rose past 49.1 market consensus to 52.6, versus 53.2 previous readings. It should be noted that the Composite PMI eased below 52.9 to 52.6 in June.

On the other hand, S&P Global Services PMI for the US slumped to 51.6 in June from 53.4 prior, not to forget missing the 53.5 forecasts. Further, the Manufacturing PMI not only missed the market expectation of 56 by a wide margin in June, to 52.4 versus 57.00 previous readings, but also slumped to a nearly two-year low.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell cited inflation and recession woes as the challenges to ensure a smooth landing, despite expecting firmer growth this year, during his second round of Testimony. The central banker’s concern for recession joined downbeat US data to favor the risk-off mood.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% while the US 10-year Treasury yields remain unchanged at around 3.09% after dropping to a fortnight low the previous day.

Moving on, RBA’s Lowe is likely to reiterate his hawkish bias, especially after the recently upbeat Aussie PMIs, which in turn could favor the AUD/USD bulls. However, any mentioning of economic fears could join the latest downbeat performance of iron ore, Australia’s key export item, to recall the bears.

Technical analysis

A six-week-old support line around 0.6855-60 puts a floor under the AUD/USD downside. Recovery moves, however, need validation from a downward sloping resistance line from June 07, at 0.6930 by the press time. 

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price0.6905
Today Daily Change-0.0022
Today Daily Change %-0.32%
Today daily open0.6927
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.7084
Daily SMA500.7109
Daily SMA1000.7216
Daily SMA2000.7236
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6975
Previous Daily Low0.6881
Previous Weekly High0.707
Previous Weekly Low0.685
Previous Monthly High0.7267
Previous Monthly Low0.6828
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6917
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6939
Daily Pivot Point S10.688
Daily Pivot Point S20.6833
Daily Pivot Point S30.6785
Daily Pivot Point R10.6974
Daily Pivot Point R20.7022
Daily Pivot Point R30.7069

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD is defending its renewed uptick above 1.3300 in the European session on Friday, helped by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data for June. The pair snaps a five-day losing streak but the upside potential could be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East.


EUR/USD rises to 1.1400 after strong German PMI data

EUR/USD is catching a fresh bid and retakes 1.1400 in European trading on Friday. The pair gains ground after Germany's preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI beat estimates with 52.2 in July, lifting the Euro. However, further upside could be limited by escalating conflicts in the Middle East, despite the ECB's hawkish hold decision.

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day, and weakens further below the $4,050 level during the Asian session. Escalating US-Iran tensions support elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and bolstering expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. This helps the US Dollar preserve its strong weekly gains to a nearly one-month high, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor undermining the non-yielding bullion.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin tests 50-day EMA support – Pi Network and Sky lead losses

The broader cryptocurrency market faces headwinds with rising tensions between the US and Iran, pushing Bitcoin down to its 50-day Exponential Moving Average support around $65,135 on Friday. Under pressure, Pi Network and Sky emerge as the worst-performing crypto assets over the last 24 hours.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.