AUD/USD pulls back from 0.6580 after RBA-fueled rally

AUD/USD climbed after the RBA pondered rate cuts.
The Aussie’s extended recovery got hampered after falling just short of 0.6580.
Fed watchers will be pivoting to Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The AUD/USD climbed on Tuesday, rebounding from the day’s low near 0.6520 to fall just shy of 0.6580 before pulling back into the day’s range. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady early Tuesday as markets broadly expected, but another rate hike is still in the ether and investors will be looking to suss out how close the Federal Reserve (Fed) is to cuttign interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest Meeting Minutes drop on Wednesday.

The RBA held rates for the time being, but the Australian central bank’s internal dialogue appears to be leaning towards further rate cuts if faster progress isn’t made on inflation soon. With Australia’s lop-sided economy grappling with a tight labor market and still-high services inflation, the RBA expects it could take until well into 2025 before inflation reaches target levels.

RBA Minutes: Board considered a hike of 25bp or an on hold decision

With the potential for another rate hike on the table, the Aussie (AUD) climbed through Tuesday’s early trading session, before getting pared back during the US market window.

The mid-week trading session will see eyes on the Fed and its FOMC’s latest Meeting Minutes, slated to release at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. Investors will be looking to see how close the Fed is to delivering interest rate cuts, with the market broadly expecting a first rate trim in June or July, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

AUD/USD technical outlook

The AUD/USD found its highest bids in nearly three weeks on Tuesday, climbing towards 0.6580 but falling just short of the interim level before getting pulled back into 0.6550 on stiffer US Dollar (USD) flows. The pair is grappling with a low-conviction recovery from the last swing low into 0.6450, and bullish momentum is running into a technical ceiling at the 200-day Simple Moving Average near 0.6565.

Beyond near-term price action, a heavy resistance zone from 0.6620 to 0.6600 weighs on bullish momentum into the medium-term.

AUD/USD hourly chart

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6551
Today Daily Change	0.0011
Today Daily Change %	0.17
Today daily open	0.654

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.654
Daily SMA50	0.6641
Daily SMA100	0.6545
Daily SMA200	0.6565

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6552
Previous Daily Low	0.6528
Previous Weekly High	0.6545
Previous Weekly Low	0.6443
Previous Monthly High	0.6839
Previous Monthly Low	0.6525
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6543
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6537
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6528
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6515
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6503
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6552
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6564
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6577

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD looks inconclusive near 0.7120

AUD/USD has been struggling for direction on Monday, coming under fresh downside pressure soon after retesting the 0.7140 area and looking to stabilise in the low 0.7100s ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Tuesday. The pair’s daily decline comes on the back of the generalised improvement in the sentiment surrounding the Greenback.

USD/JPY eases below 157.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY is easing back below 157.00 in Asia on Monday, undermined by modest Japanese Yen strength amid looming intervention risks after Friday's BoJ rate check. A Japanese holiday also keeps traders on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. As a result, the US Dollar pauses its pullback, limiting the pair's downside.

Gold meets resistance around $4,400

Gold kicks in the new trading with on the back foot, keeping its trade near $4,350 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s correction comes on the back of the firmer US Dollar and espite declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin rallies near $86K on improving markets ahead of quarterly options expiry

Bitcoin (BTC) market conditions improved over the past week as spot buying pressure strengthened and derivatives positioning increased, pushing the top crypto near $86,000. BTC’s price momentum rose from 47.7 to 53.6, representing a 12.5% weekly increase.

The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.