|

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Below 0.6415, the pair might fall to 0.6375

  • Aussie Dollar remains depressed, with bears testing two-month lows at 0.6415.
  • US Dollar is outperforming its peers in risk-averse markets, ahead of Fed Powell's speech.
  • AUD/USD's immediate trend is bearish, with the next downside targets at 0.6400 and 0.6365.

Aussie Dollar’s upside attempts have been contained below 0.6430 so far on Friday, and the pair turned lower again to two-month lows at the 0.6415 area, which is being tested at the time of writing.

The US Dollar is outperforming its main peers, underpinned by a moderate risk-averse market. Investors are wary of selling US Dollars, ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to give some clues about the bank’s next monetary policy steps.

AUD/USD is on track for a 1.3% weekly decline

This leaves the pair on the defensive, after a nearly 1.3% sell-off so far this week. In the absence of key macroeconomic data, the cautious market mood has been bleeding the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar this week, with upbeat US figures prompting investors to pare bets of Fed cuts and posing additional support for the Greenback.

AUD/USD Chart


The technical picture, thus, is strongly bearish, with sellers pushing against support near the August 1 low of 0.6415 at the moment. Below here, the psychological level at 0.6400 might provide some support, but the 0.6375 level, where the June 23 low meets the 127.2 Fibiopnacci retracement of the early August rally, looks like a more plausible level.

To the upside, immediate resistance is at the mentioned 0.6435 intra-day high. Further up, the area between the August 5 low and August 20 high at 0.6450-0.6455 might challenge bulls ahead of the previous support near the 0.6480 area, where bears were contained on August 12, 14, and 18.

Australian Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.94%1.04%1.06%0.69%1.39%2.03%0.36%
EUR-0.94%0.09%0.10%-0.25%0.46%1.05%-0.57%
GBP-1.04%-0.09%-0.10%-0.33%0.37%0.96%-0.70%
JPY-1.06%-0.10%0.10%-0.34%0.35%0.99%-0.69%
CAD-0.69%0.25%0.33%0.34%0.67%1.33%-0.36%
AUD-1.39%-0.46%-0.37%-0.35%-0.67%0.59%-1.03%
NZD-2.03%-1.05%-0.96%-0.99%-1.33%-0.59%-1.67%
CHF-0.36%0.57%0.70%0.69%0.36%1.03%1.67%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD: Bulls pray for a dovish Fed

EUR/USD has finally taken a breather after a pretty energetic climb. The pair broke above 1.1680 in the second half of the week, reaching its highest levels in around two months before running into some selling pressure. Even so, it has gained almost two cents from the late-November dip just below 1.1500 the figure.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3330 as traders await Fed rate decision

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3320-1.3325 region, during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain close to the highest level since October 22, touched last Thursday, with bulls awaiting a sustained strength and acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average before placing fresh bets.

Gold drifts higher above $4,200 on Fed rate cut expectations

Gold price trades in positive territory near $4,205 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting on Wednesday. 

Week ahead: Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low. Dollar weakness could linger; both the aussie and the yen best positioned to gain further. Gold and oil eye Ukraine-Russia developments; a peace deal remains elusive.

The Silver disconnection is real

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.